“I will make the tax cuts permanent!” “It’s time for every American to have affordable healthcare!” “I will veto every spending bill, you will know their names.” “I will end this war responsibly in 16 months.”
With every speech, debate, interview, and forum we hear the presidential candidates make their case by outlining plans and promises for when they are in office. No surprise there, neither is it a surprise that we tend to forget that the president has to work with the Congress.
While the two parties fight for the White House, they also campaign for control of Congress, and whoever has control of Congress is a big deal and strongly affects the president’s agenda.
Currently, our congress is Democratic. The House of Representatives has a solid Democratic majority, while the Senate just barely gives the majority to the Democrats. With all the excitement surrounding Barack Obama, as well as indications that he is leading in polls, it looks like the Congress will mostly stay Democratic. But even beyond this, there is an increasing possibility that the majority in the House will increase, while in the Senate, the majority which is like a string now may sky rocket up since several Democratic candidates are leading in their states. This therefore has huge implications for both presidential candidates.
If Barack Obama is to win this election, it will mean the congress and the White House will be in Democratic control. This makes it much easier for Obama to go along with his agenda. For example, he wants to pass a middle class tax cut, healthcare reform and a huge reform to use more alternative energy instead of oil. With the congress being Democratic, he will have enough votes there to get these plans passed. In addition, if he appoints any Supreme Court justices, that majority will make it easier for those justices to be appointment without much opposition. Obama will have a much easier time carrying out his plans for the country.
On the other hand, John McCain if elected would have to work with a Democratic congress, much like President Bush has in the last two years. This means McCain would face much opposition to his plans. He has for example promised to make the Bush tax cuts “permanent” as President. He may want to do this his way, but with the Democratic congress, he will have to compromise and perhaps pass a tax policy that has only part or most of his original plan. He also does not want to end the Iraq War yet like Obama does, meaning he will face increased pressure by the Congress, especially if the Senate is able to reach a majority so that they can override the president’s veto.
These are the most likely scenarios: Obama would have a much easier time pushing his agenda while McCain would only be able to do so much and have to give in to Democratic ideas and policies. Still, even that is not assured. President Bush in 2005 tried to advocate for the privatizing of social security, and it never got off the ground despite having a Republican controlled congress.
For some, having control of both the White House and Congress makes it easier, but it also can mean no checks and balances. Some believe President Bush was able to do too much with the congress being like a “rubber stamp” for him. Therefore they argue that what made the Bill Clinton years so good was that with the congress being Republican, there was able to be a lot of back and forth with the result being the Democratic Clinton and Republican Congress having to pass laws that were balanced.
Whether you advocate these examples of divided or unified government, it is still worth noting that the Presidential candidates, especially John McCain, are selling us their plans without addressing how the majority in Congress will greatly affect how their agenda plays out. They may both be able to avoid the subject, but as voters we can’t ignore these implications for both of them.
